US Conference Board Consumer Confidence August 2026 (release 26 August 2026): index falls below 90.0 points (confirmed by Conference Board press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. August 2026
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Predicted for 26. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
In July 2026 the Conference Board CC fell to 90.8 — below the 92.3 consensus (PR Newswire, 28 Jul 2026). The Expectations Index at 74.7 remains well below the 80 recession-warning threshold. For August, several headwinds apply: (1) July US nonfarm payrolls: −23k (first negative since 2023), surveyed AFTER the July CC poll — this shock enters the August reading for the first time. (2) Headline CPI at 3.4% continues squeezing purchasing power. (3) The Iran war keeps WTI near $87. No direct Polymarket CC market; own estimate: August CC likely to fall to 87–89.
Data basis for this prediction
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Juli 2026: 90,8 (Konsens 92,3) (PR Newswire, 28.07.2026)
- Expectations Index Juli 2026: 74,7 — unter Rezessionswarnschwelle 80 (Conference Board)
- US Nonfarm Payrolls Juli 2026: −23.000 (BLS, publiziert nach Juli-CC-Umfrage, ca. 07.08.2026)
- US CPI Juli 2026: 3,4% Headline / 2,5% Core; WTI ~87,06 USD (BLS / Forbes Advisor, Aug 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Conference Board Consumer Confidence August 2026 = 89,4 Punkte (veröffentlicht heute 10:00 ET), unter dem Schwellenwert 90,0. Bestätigt durch investinglive.com ('89.4 vs 90.2 expected') und Yahoo Finance/ABA Banking Journal.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,591 on 10 September 2026 (-0.59%), weighed by high oil prices (Brent $105.71) and US-Iran tensions. The probability of a 25bp FOMC rate hike on 16 September stands at 62% (CME FedWatch), Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56% – largely priced in. Historically, markets react more moderately to anticipated rate moves than to surprises. The 7,500 threshold equals a 1.2% drop over seven trading days – unlikely from an anticipated hike alone. Main risk: hawkish FOMC statement or acute Gulf escalation.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.