📈 Economy · Tomorrow

US Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) August 2026 (release August 31, 2026) above 44.0 points

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. August 2026 · Predicted for 31. August 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

65%

Chicago PMI stood at approximately 45.3 in July 2026 (MNI/ISM) — contraction, but modest improvement from the spring trough. For August, national indicators support a stabilization: S&P Global US Mfg PMI Flash above 50.5 (existing Cassandra forecast) and ISM Mfg PMI above 54.0 (existing forecast, Sept 2). The Chicago index is regionally concentrated (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan) and typically lags national trends by 4–6 weeks. The 44.0 threshold permits a slight deterioration versus July. No Polymarket odds available; estimated probability: 65%.

Data basis for this prediction

Chicago PMI Juli 2026: ca. 45,3 Punkte (MNI/ISM, 31. Juli 2026)
S&P Global US Mfg PMI Flash Aug 2026: über 50,5 (Cassandra-Vorhersage, offene Vorhersage)
ISM Mfg PMI-Vorhersage Aug 2026: über 54,0 (Cassandra-Vorhersage, Veröffentlichung 2.9.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Chicago PMI August 2026 kam bei 47,1 herein – über dem Schwellenwert von 44,0. Veröffentlicht am 28. August 2026. Quellen: CNBC, Trading Economics.

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