📈 Economy
· Tomorrow
US GDP Q2 2026 Second Estimate (BEA, 26 August 2026): annualised growth revised up to at least 1.8% (confirmed by BEA press release or Bloomberg)
Probability
37%
The BEA advance estimate (30 July 2026) showed only 1.5% annualised growth, well below the 2.1% Bloomberg/LSEG consensus. The second estimate (26 August, 8:30 am EDT) incorporates revised trade, inventory, and services data. Historically, second estimates deviate ±0.5 pp on average from the advance. A revision to ≥1.8% is possible if inventory drawdowns or the trade deficit prove smaller than initially estimated. No analyst consensus for the second estimate available as of 25 August; Probability: 37% – plausible but not the modal outcome.
Data basis for this prediction
- BEA Advance Estimate Q2 2026: +1,5 % annualisiert (30. Juli 2026)
- Bloomberg/LSEG Konsens Q2 2026: 2,1 % (Juli 2026)
- BEA Veröffentlichungskalender: Zweite Schätzung Q2 2026 am 26. August 2026
- Advisor Perspectives – GDP Q2 2026 Advance Estimate (30. Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BEA GDP Q2 2026 zweite Schätzung (26. August, 8:30 ET): annualisiertes Wachstum 2,1 %, Aufwärtsrevision von der Vorabschätzung 1,5 %. Quelle: TradingEconomics-Wirtschaftskalender ('QoQ 2nd Est Q2 2026: 2,1 %'). 2,1 % ≥ 1,8 % → Schwellenwert erfüllt.