📈 Economy · Next Week

US August 2026 Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payrolls net below 100,000 (BLS release September 4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 2. September 2026 · Predicted for 4. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

57%

Capital Economics projects only +90,000 jobs for August 2026 — the lowest consensus forecast in years. Drivers: immigration curbs shrinking labor supply (per Fed Chair Warsh memos), job cuts in manufacturing and consumer goods. July 2026 was -23,000, the first negative NFP print since 2020. A sub-100K August print would be consistent with the softening trend without signaling recession. The existing Cassandra prediction (NFP >50K) covers only a floor; this prediction adds an informative ceiling.

Data basis for this prediction

Capital Economics: US Employment Report Preview – +90.000 für August 2026 (1.9.2026)
BLS Employment Situation Summary: Juli 2026 NFP = –23.000 (7.8.2026)
CNBC: Jobs report July 2026 – miss vs. consensus ~79.000–83.000 (7.8.2026)
CNBC: September Fed decision 'coin flip' – Warsh signals hawkishness (28.8.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] BLS-Bericht vom 4. September 2026: Nonfarm Payrolls August +22.000 Stellen netto – klar unter 100.000. Quelle: BLS / CNBC / Staffing Industry Analysts.

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