📈 Economy
· Next Month
US July 2026 Employment Report (BLS Nonfarm Payrolls, release approx. 7 August 2026): Non-farm payrolls below 120,000 new jobs (confirmed by Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Probability
38%
Market expects July NFP at 130,000–150,000, but downside risks are accumulating: Trump's new tariffs effective 24–25 July causing manufacturing and retail job losses; Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final July 2026 at 49.5 (sharply down from 54.4); US-Iran war and $98+ Brent oil dampening business investment; initial claims at 187,000 for week of 25 July still healthy but a potential inflection point. Sub-120,000 would signal a significant growth slowdown.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS Initial Jobless Claims: 187.000 (Woche 25.07.2026, BLS / Investing.com)
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Juli 2026: 49,5 (Reuters / Uni Michigan)
- Neue US-Zölle wirksam 24.–25. Juli 2026 (Washington Post, 25.07.2026)
- Brent Crude $98+/bbl – Wachstumsbremse US-Wirtschaft (Bloomberg, 24.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage trat deutlich ein. Laut dem BLS-Bericht vom 7. August 2026 sanken die Nonfarm Payrolls im Juli 2026 um –23.000 Stellen – also nicht nur unter 120.000, sondern sogar negativ. Selbst der Marktkonsens hatte noch +83.000–95.000 erwartet. Haupttreiber waren: –50.000 im lokalen Bildungswesen (Regierung), –19.000 im Einzelhandel sowie ein Rückgang der Partizipationsrate auf 61,4 %. Die Revision der Vormonatsdaten (Mai –66.000, Juni –37.000) verstärkte das Bild einer deutlichen Abschwächung. Quellen: BLS Employment Situation July 2026 (bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), Quartz (qz.com/us-payrolls-july-2026-jobs-report-080726), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html).