US Unemployment Rate August 2026 (BLS, September 4, 2026) above 4.0%
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 4. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
US labor market shows broad weakness: JOLTS July 2026 missed the 8M threshold at 7.27M open positions (confirmed Cassandra hit). ISM Services PMI August 2026 came in at 51.5 today, well below consensus forecasts of 54–55; the employment sub-index fell into contraction again. Existing open Cassandra forecasts for NFP below 60,000 and 75,000 signal bearish market expectations. The unemployment rate itself is not covered in any open forecast — a rise above 4.0% appears plausible given consistently weak sub-indicators and Fed Funds Rate pressure at 3.50–3.75%. No explicit Polymarket market available for the unemployment rate; estimate derived from trend data and macro factors.
Data basis for this prediction
- JOLTS Juli 2026: 7,27 Mio. offene Stellen (BLS-Veröffentlichung 1. September 2026)
- ISM Services PMI August 2026: 51,5 Punkte, Employment-Subindex <50 (S&P Global, 3. September 2026)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3,50–3,75 % (FOMC, Stand September 2026)
- BLS NFP-Bericht August 2026: Veröffentlichung 4. September 2026, 14:30 Uhr MEZ
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-Arbeitslosenquote August 2026: 4,3 % – über der Schwelle von 4,0 %. Quelle: BLS-Pressemitteilung 4. September 2026.
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