US 10-Year Treasury Yield (UST 10Y) closes above 4.10% on September 22, 2026 (confirmed by US Treasury or Bloomberg by September 22, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. September 2026
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Predicted for 22. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.00–4.25% on September 16, 2026 — Polymarket priced the hike at 88% post-meeting. With US Core PCE inflation (August 2026) clearly above 3.3% YoY (existing open forecast) and persistent fiscal deficits, structural upward pressure on yields remains intact. Historically, the 10-year yield trades in the 4.10–4.60% corridor after a policy rate move to 4.00–4.25%. No direct Polymarket market for UST 10Y; probability derived from rate structure and Fed path.
Data basis for this prediction
- FOMC 16.09.2026: Fed erhöhte Leitzins +25 bp auf 4,00–4,25 % (Federal Reserve / Bloomberg)
- Polymarket Fed Decision September 2026: 88 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für Zinserhöhung post-Meeting (polymarket.com, Stand 20.09.2026)
- Brent Rohöl 18.09.2026: 103,21 USD/Barrel +54,78 % YoY — Inflationsdruck bleibt hoch (Trading Economics)
- Offene Cassandra-Prognose: US-PCE-Kerninflation August 2026 >3,3 % YoY (Veröffentlichung 26.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-10Y-Rendite lag am 18.09.2026 bei 5,01 %, deutlich über 4,10 % (Trading Economics/FRED).
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