US 10-Year Treasury Yield Closes Above 5.00% for the First Time Since October 2023 on September 17, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.95–4.96% on September 11, 2026 — at the cusp of the psychologically pivotal 5% level. Polymarket/defirate.com aggregate a 78–81% probability of a 25bp FOMC hike on September 16 (CME FedWatch: 60–64%). A hike would almost certainly push the yield above 5.00% the following trading day; even a hold in hawkish language — Fed Chair Warsh's posture since his August 2026 Jackson Hole speech — sustains upward pressure. The existing Cassandra prediction of 'above 4.80% on Sept 17' is a lower threshold and is not duplicated here.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bloomberg: US 10-jährige Rendite 4,95–4,96% (11.09.2026)
- Polymarket/defirate.com: FOMC September Hike aggregiert 78–81% (11.09.2026)
- CME FedWatch: 60–64% für 25-bps-Zinserhöhung September 2026 (11.09.2026)
- VantageMarkets: '10-year Treasury yield at cusp of 5%' (11.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Die US-10-Jahres-Staatsanleiherendite schloss am 17. September 2026 bei 4,951% – unterhalb der 5,00%-Marke. Quelle: CNBC (Titel: 'Treasury yields move lower after Fed kicks off hiking cycle', 17. September 2026).
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