US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.80% on September 17, 2026 (first trading day after the September 16 FOMC decision, confirmed by Bloomberg or Federal Reserve H.15 by September 17, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The US 10-year yield closed at 4.97% on September 11, 2026 — driven by headline PPI for August at +5.4% YoY (BLS, September 10) and accelerating CPI. Polymarket prices a 53% probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16. Even in the no-hike scenario (47%), yields would need to fall more than 17 basis points to close below 4.80% — historically unlikely absent a sharp risk-off shock. An actual hike would push yields higher still.
Data basis for this prediction
- US-10Y-Rendite Schluss 11. September 2026: 4,97 % (Trading Economics / Bloomberg)
- Headline PPI August 2026 YoY: +5,4 % (BLS / CNBC, 10. September 2026)
- Polymarket: 53 % Wahrscheinlichkeit Fed-Zinserhöhung 16. September 2026 (Stand 11. September 2026, KuCoin/Polymarket)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-10-Jahres-Treasury-Rendite lag am 17. September 2026 um 2:12 Uhr ET bei 4,988 %, nach Berichten vom 15. September war sie auf über 5,04 % gestiegen. Schlusskurs weit über 4,80 %. Schlagzeile: 'Treasury yields move lower after Fed kicks off hiking cycle' (CNBC) – ausgehend von knapp 5 %, also weiterhin >4,80 %.
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