📈 Economy
· Next Week
US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) closes above 4.70% on 4 September 2026 (NFP release day), confirmed by Bloomberg or US Treasury
Probability
65%
The US 10-year yield stands at 4.78–4.80% on September 1, the highest since January 2025. Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech (29 August) pushed September rate-hike expectations to ~60% (Polymarket 60%, Kalshi ~60.5%). The NFP print on September 4 may cause intraday volatility; even on a soft result, the structurally hawkish narrative should keep yields above 4.70%. The existing open Cassandra prediction targets >4.55% on September 5 — this prediction uses a 15 bp higher threshold for the preceding day.
Data basis for this prediction
- US 10Y yield: 4.78–4.80% (Trading Economics, 1 Sep 2026)
- Fed Sep hike probability: ~60% Polymarket, ~60.5% Kalshi (DeFiRate.com, 1 Sep 2026)
- Warsh hawkish Jackson Hole speech moving markets (Kalshi news, 29 Aug 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-10-jährige Staatsanleihe schloss am 4. September 2026 bei 4,772% (Vortag 4,76%, nach starken Payrolls gestiegen). Klar über Schwellenwert 4,70%. Quellen: Bloomberg 'US Treasuries Fall After Payrolls Beat', TradingEconomics/MarketCrash.net.