📈 Economy
· Next Week
US 10-year Treasury yield (UST 10Y) closes above 4.60% on July 31, 2026
Probability
63%
On July 23, 2026, the 10Y UST yield rose to 4.66–4.71%, the highest since January 15, 2025 (source: CNBC). Drivers: Brent oil crossed $100/barrel (inflation), Fed September 2026 rate hike probability jumped to 82% (CNBC model) and 48% (Kalshi). CPI May 2026 was 4.2% YoY. Counterrisk: further risk-off or flight to Treasuries from Gulf escalation could push yield below 4.60%. However, VIX at a moderate 16.64 currently signals no panicked flight to bonds. The 4.60% threshold is below today's level (4.66–4.71%) and is thus well-anchored.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: UST 10Y Yield 4,707 % (höchstes Niveau seit 15. Jan. 2025, 23. Juli 2026)
- CNBC: Fed-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit Sept. 2026 auf 82 % (23. Juli 2026)
- Kalshi: 48 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für Fed-Hike Sept. 2026 (Stand 23. Juli 2026)
- VIX: 16,64 am 23. Juli 2026 – kein extremer Risikoabbau (Yahoo Finance)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die US-10-Jahres-Staatsanleihe schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 4,75 % und lag damit klar über der Schwelle von 4,60 %. Die Vorhersage traf ein. Quellen: Advisor Perspectives / dshort 'Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 31, 2026' (advisorperspectives.com) und Seeking Alpha (seekingalpha.com/article/4929082). Die genannten Treiber – Inflationsdruck, gestiegene Fed-Zinserhöhungserwartungen und Ölpreisanstieg – hielten die Rendite auf erhöhtem Niveau; eine panikhafte Flucht in Bonds blieb aus.