📈 Economy · Tomorrow

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) beats adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $1.65 in Q2 2026 results (28 July 2026, before market open, confirmed by UPS press release)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 28. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

60%

UPS reports Q2 2026 before market open on 28 July. Consensus (24 analysts, alphastreet): $1.65–1.66 EPS (+6.5% YoY), revenue consensus $21.75bn (+2.5% YoY). UPS beat consensus in 3 of the last 4 quarters (75% beat rate) with an average positive surprise of +10.6%. Headwinds: extensive restructuring (headcount reductions, network optimisation, Amazon volume reduction) and softer US industrial parcel volume growth. No Polymarket market found; own estimate balancing beat rate vs. restructuring risks ~60%.

Data basis for this prediction

alphastreet.com: UPS Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens 1,66 USD, Umsatz 21,84 Mrd. USD (27. Juli 2026)
Zacks / Yahoo Finance: UPS 75 % Beat-Rate (3/4 Quartale), avg. positive EPS-Überraschung +10,6 % (27. Juli 2026)
247wallst.com: 'Five Biggest Earnings Reports to Watch This Week' – UPS unter den Top 5 (26. Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

UPS meldete am 28. Juli 2026 vor Börseneröffnung einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,76 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Konsens von ca. 1,65–1,66 USD deutlich (+6,0 % Überraschung). Auch der Umsatz (22,8 Mrd. USD) lag klar über dem Konsens von 21,75–21,81 Mrd. USD. Trotz erheblicher Restrukturierungskosten (891 Mio. USD nach Steuern für Stellenabbau/Driver-Choice-Programm) schlug UPS die Erwartungen und hob die Jahresprognose an. Quelle: UPS-Pressemitteilung (investors.ups.com, 28.07.2026) sowie CNBC, StockTitan, BusinessWire.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%

Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Bitcoin (BTC/USD spot) closes above $100,000 per unit on December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or CoinGecko by December 31, 2026)

Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.

42%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026