🏛️ Politics · Next Month

UK Autumn Budget 2026 (October 28, 2026): Chancellor John Healey announces an increase of the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) higher rate to at least 28% (currently 24%, confirmed by HM Treasury or BBC by October 29, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. September 2026 · Predicted for 28. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

58%

PM Burnham programmatically stated: 'We over-tax work and under-tax wealth.' Healey delivers Labour's first budget Oct 28, having explicitly ruled out income tax, VAT, and NI rises — making CGT the logical revenue vehicle. Grant Thornton and Charles Russell Speechlys identify CGT as the most likely reform target. Current higher rate: 24% (raised from 20% by Reeves in Oct 2024). Any move toward income tax rate alignment (upper rate 40%) implies ≥28%. No direct Polymarket market; own estimate: 58%.

Data basis for this prediction

Grant Thornton UK (27.09.2026): 'Autumn Budget 2026 predictions — CGT among tax changes to watch'
Charles Russell Speechlys (27.09.2026): 'Autumn Budget 2026: Possible CGT changes and pre-budget planning'
Which.co.uk (27.09.2026): Datum 28. Oktober 2026 bestätigt, Chancellor John Healey (Burnham-Regierung)
WealthBriefing (27.09.2026): Burnham-Zitat über Vermögensbesteuerung; CGT-Erhöhung als Hauptszenario

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Chancellor John Healey lehnte im UK Autumn Budget 2026 (28. Oktober 2026) eine Erhöhung der Capital Gains Tax ausdrücklich ab. CGT-Satz bleibt unverändert bei 24 %. Quelle: KentOnline, LBC Budget Live-Blog.

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