TTF Natural Gas (ICE front month) closes above 70.00 EUR/MWh on October 31, 2026 (confirmed by ICE or Bloomberg by November 1, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. October 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
ICE TTF Natural Gas (front month) closed at ~73.24 EUR/MWh on October 1, 2026, up 132%+ year-on-year. European gas storage is only ~71% full (5Y average ~87%); Germany below 58%, an unusually large deficit for early October. Seasonal tailwinds (winter heating demand from November) and a persistent Hormuz risk premium support prices. Bearish counter: Citi sees ~61 EUR/MWh and Oxford Economics ~60 EUR/MWh as Q4 base case; normalization of LNG flows or rapid refilling via Atlantic imports could erode the premium. Tacto.ai assigns 30-35% probability to its risk scenario of 72-90 EUR/MWh. The 70 EUR/MWh threshold sits ~3 EUR below current spot, offering a cushion that should hold under normal seasonal patterns. No Polymarket market for TTF October found.
Data basis for this prediction
- ICE TTF Frontmonat: ~73,24 EUR/MWh, +132 % YoY (EnergyRiskIQ / Barchart, 1. Oktober 2026)
- Europäische Gasspeicher: ~71 % gefüllt; Deutschland <58 % (ABN AMRO Gas Market Monitor, Oktober 2026)
- Citi/Oxford Economics Basisprognose Q4 2026: ~60–61 EUR/MWh (Investing.com, Oktober 2026)
- Tacto.ai Risikoszenario (30–35 % Wahrscheinlichkeit): 72–90 EUR/MWh (Tacto.ai Energy, Oktober 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der ICE TTF Natural Gas Frontmonat schloss am 31. Oktober 2026 deutlich über der Schwelle von 70 EUR/MWh – laut cbonds.com/investing.com-Daten lag der Schlusskurs am 30. Oktober 2026 bei ~103,94 EUR/MWh, und das Oktober-Minimum des Monats betrug 73,52 EUR/MWh (d. h. selbst am schwächsten Tag des Monats lag der Preis über der Marke). Die Schwelle von 70 EUR/MWh wurde also mit einem Puffer von ~30 EUR übertroffen. Am 28. Oktober 2026 überquerte der Frontmonat erstmals seit 2022 die 100-EUR-Marke (Quelle: europeangashub.com); ein HotAir-Artikel vom 1. November 2026 bestätigt 'Four-Year High as Winter Looms'. Hintergrund: Europas Gasspeicher blieben erheblich unter dem Fünfjahresdurchschnitt, die Winternachfrage zog früh an, und die Hormuz-/Lieferprämie blieb bestehen – genau die Faktoren, die in der Vorhersage als stützend benannt wurden. Die bärische Gegenhese (Citi ~61 EUR, Oxford ~60 EUR) trat nicht ein.
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