💻 Technology
· Next Month
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., NYSE: TSM) beats the non-GAAP EPS analyst consensus in its Q3 FY2026 results (approx. October 16, 2026, after market close, confirmed by TSMC press release or Bloomberg)
Probability
72%
TSMC has beaten the EPS analyst consensus for eight consecutive quarters. Q3 revenue guidance stands at $44.6–45.8B (midpoint +37% YoY, +12% QoQ) with gross margin 65–67% and operating margin 56–58%. Such strong guidance implies conservative consensus estimates — a classic TSMC pattern ahead of earnings calls. Key drivers: NVIDIA Blackwell ramp, Apple A20 Pro production, HPC demand. AI-related revenue exceeds 25% of total. Polymarket does not trade a direct TSMC EPS-beat market; historical beat rate and guidance level point to ~72% probability.
Data basis for this prediction
- TSMC Q3 2026 Guidance: Umsatz 44,6–45,8 Mrd. USD, Bruttomarge 65–67 %, Operating Margin 56–58 % (TSMC Q2 2026 Earnings Call, SEC Form 6-K, investor.tsmc.com, Juli 2026)
- TSMC Q2 2026 Ergebnis: Umsatz/EPS-Konsens erneut übertroffen — 8 Quartale in Folge (Bloomberg, Quartr, Juli 2026)
- TSMC KI-Umsatzanteil >25 % des Gesamtumsatzes (TSMC Management-Kommentar Q2 2026 Earnings Call)
- TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings-Termin: voraussichtlich 16. Oktober 2026 (Nasdaq Earnings Calendar, Tickerleague)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.