TSMC (NYSE: TSM) beats the Q2 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $2.25 per ADS on July 17, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
TSMC is the sole producer of the most advanced chip nodes (3nm, 2nm) for Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. AI chip demand remains structurally at record highs: NVIDIA B200/H200 orders and Apple Intelligence chips fill TSMC capacity. Q2 2026 results expected around July 17 (analogous to Q1 on April 17, 2026). Analyst consensus approx. $2.25 EPS per ADS. TSMC beat EPS consensus in 14 of last 15 quarters. Open Cassandra predictions NVDA >$225 (July 18) and ASML beat (July 15) confirm the continuing semiconductor supercycle in Q2 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- TSMC earnings calendar: Q2 2026 ca. 17. Juli 2026 (analog Q1-Muster am 17. April 2026)
- Analystenkonsens EPS Q2 2026: ca. 2,25 USD je ADS (Bloomberg/FactSet, Stand Juli 2026)
- TSMC Beat-Historie: 14 von 15 Quartalen (Earnings Whispers)
- ASML Q2-2026-Beat-Vorhersage (15. Juli) + NVDA >225 USD (18. Juli): Sektor-Momentum bestätigt
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TSMC Q2-2026 EPS: 4,31 USD je ADS (>2,25 USD Konsens). Daten bereits mit Quartalsbericht veröffentlicht. Quelle: TechPowerUp / SEC Form 6-K
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.