TSMC (NYSE: TSM) reports Q2 2026 revenue growth above 35% YoY in USD at its July 17, 2026 earnings release
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
TSMC achieved +38.6% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2025 (in TWD; similar in USD). The open Cassandra prediction covers adjusted EPS (~$2.25 per ADS); here we predict revenue growth separately. For Q2 2026, the comparison base is high since Q2 2025 was already strong. Nevertheless, AI chip demand (Nvidia Blackwell/Rubin, Apple A-series, AMD MI-series) has further accelerated, and TSMC's 3nm/2nm capacity is largely booked out. A USD/TWD decline (stronger TWD) would slightly dampen USD revenues but should not drag growth below 35%.
Data basis for this prediction
- TSMC Q2 2025 Umsatz: +38,6 % YoY in TWD (TSMC Pressemitteilung / Yahoo Finance, Juli 2025)
- KI-Chip-Nachfrage 2026: Nvidia GB300/Rubin, Apple A20, AMD MI400 als TSMC-Kunden (Bloomberg)
- TSMC Ergebnisdatum: 17. Juli 2026 (Yahoo Finance Earnings Calendar)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TSMC Q2-2026-Umsatz stieg um 36,0 % im Jahresvergleich in USD (>35 %). Daten bereits mit Quartalsbericht veröffentlicht. Quelle: TechPowerUp / SEC Form 6-K
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Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
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Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.