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💻 Technology · Next Week

TSMC (NYSE: TSM) reports Q2 2026 revenue growth above 35% YoY in USD at its July 17, 2026 earnings release

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. July 2026 · Predicted for 17. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
60%

TSMC achieved +38.6% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2025 (in TWD; similar in USD). The open Cassandra prediction covers adjusted EPS (~$2.25 per ADS); here we predict revenue growth separately. For Q2 2026, the comparison base is high since Q2 2025 was already strong. Nevertheless, AI chip demand (Nvidia Blackwell/Rubin, Apple A-series, AMD MI-series) has further accelerated, and TSMC's 3nm/2nm capacity is largely booked out. A USD/TWD decline (stronger TWD) would slightly dampen USD revenues but should not drag growth below 35%.

Data basis for this prediction
  • TSMC Q2 2025 Umsatz: +38,6 % YoY in TWD (TSMC Pressemitteilung / Yahoo Finance, Juli 2025)
  • KI-Chip-Nachfrage 2026: Nvidia GB300/Rubin, Apple A20, AMD MI400 als TSMC-Kunden (Bloomberg)
  • TSMC Ergebnisdatum: 17. Juli 2026 (Yahoo Finance Earnings Calendar)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TSMC Q2-2026-Umsatz stieg um 36,0 % im Jahresvergleich in USD (>35 %). Daten bereits mit Quartalsbericht veröffentlicht. Quelle: TechPowerUp / SEC Form 6-K
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Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) beats Q4 FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.06 per share — earnings report November 12, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Applied Materials Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 13, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

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42%
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Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

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