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Tour de France 2026 Stage 20 (July 25, Le Bourg-d'Oisans → Alpe d'Huez, 171 km, Queen Stage): Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG, SLO) wins the stage
Probability
42%
Stage 20 is the hardest stage of the 2026 Tour with 5,600 m of climbing over Col de la Croix de Fer, Col du Télégraphe, Col du Galibier, Col de Sarenne and finally Alpe d'Huez. Pogačar has secured the GC lead by a wide margin (Polymarket: 94.8% overall winner) and already won Stage 19 (July 24, Gap→Alpe d'Huez). With GC decided, queen stages often go to breakaways – historically the probability alternates between Pogačar attacks (he is known for back-to-back stage wins) and breakaway specialists (cf. Carapaz Stage 18 win). Start 11:20 CEST, finish expected ~16:30 CEST. Without a specific Stage 20 market quote: Pogačar ~42%, breakaway ~58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Pogačar TdF-Gesamtsieg 94,8 % (Stand 24.07.2026, cryptoslate.com)
- Etappe 20 Route & Profil: alpedhuez.com / cyclingstage.com (bestätigt: 171 km, 5.600 m, Start 11:20 CEST)
- TdF 2026 Etappe 18-Sieger (23. Juli): Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), cyclingnews.com
- Cassandra: Etappe 19 (24. Juli) Pogačar-Sieg und GC-Vorsprung >5:00 min bereits offen vorhergesagt
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pogačar gewann Etappe 20 (25. Juli, Alpe d'Huez) mit seinem fünften Etappensieg der Tour 2026 und neuem Alpe-d'Huez-Rekord (Cycling Weekly bestätigt).