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Tour de France 2026 Stage 20 (25 July 2026, Le Bourg d'Oisans → Alpe d'Huez, 170.9 km): Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG, SLO) wins solo

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. July 2026 · Predicted for 25. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

58%

Stage 20 (Bourg d'Oisans–Alpe d'Huez, 170.9 km) is the queen stage of Tour 2026: 5,600m of elevation via Col de la Croix de Fer, Télégraphe, Galibier, and Col de Sarenne, with a second consecutive Alpe d'Huez summit finish. Per open Cassandra predictions, Pogačar already won Stages 18 (Voiron–Orcières-Merlette) and 19 (Gap–Alpe d'Huez) and leads the Yellow Jersey. Aggregated bookmaker odds imply Pogačar as clear favourite for every mountain finish of this Tour. A third consecutive solo win is historically rare for a dominant GC leader but plausible given his 2026 form. No separate Polymarket market for Stage 20; own calibration 58%.

Data basis for this prediction

TdF 2026 Etappe 20 Streckenprofil: 170,9 km, 5.600 Hm (Cyclingnews / NBC Sports, 2026)
Pogačar Sieger Etappe 18 + 19 (offene Cassandra-Vorhersagen, Stand 22.07.2026)
Aggregierte Buchmacherquoten TdF 2026 Bergankünfte: Pogačar Favorit (Oddschecker-Aggregat, Stand 22.07.2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pogačar gewann Etappe 20, jedoch nicht als Soloausreißer: Laut ProcyclingStats-Ergebnisseite beendeten Isaac del Toro und Remco Evenepoel die Etappe ebenfalls in der Spitzengruppe – kein Solosieg.

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