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The Open Championship 2026 (Royal Birkdale, July 19): Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 of the overall standings
Probability
33%
Rory McIlroy is the second-biggest favourite for the 2026 Claret Jug at bookmaker odds of +850 (~10% win probability) (covers.com / cbssports.com, July 13, 2026). A top-5 finish for a top favourite typically carries 2.5–3× the win probability, implying ~25–35%. McIlroy has played Royal Birkdale on multiple occasions, excels on links courses, and benefits from home crowd support as a Northern Irishman. Scottie Scheffler remains the leader at +550–+750 (~16–25%). No Polymarket market for top-5 finish; estimate based on aggregated bookmaker odds.
Data basis for this prediction
- Open Championship 2026 Buchmacherquoten: McIlroy +850 (~10 % Sieg), Scheffler +550–+750 (~16–25 % Sieg), Fleetwood +1400 (~6 %) – covers.com / cbssports.com / sportsbettingdime.com, Stand 13.07.2026
- CBS Sports: 'Open Championship 2026 odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions' (cbssports.com, 2026)
- GolfDigest: '13 best bets to win at Royal Birkdale' – McIlroy als Top-Kandidat (golfdigest.com, 2026)
- Tournament dates Royal Birkdale: 16.–19. Juli 2026 (golfchannel.com)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
McIlroy beendete das Turnier auf dem geteilten 40. Platz mit +1 (Runden: 72-67-69-71) – weit entfernt von den Top 5. Sieger Ryan Fox gewann mit -10 vor Cameron Young (-9) und Sam Burns (-8); die Plätze 4 und 5 belegten Tommy Fleetwood und Scottie Scheffler (je -7). McIlroy lag am Ende 11 Schläge hinter dem Sieger. Bereits die erste Runde (72, +2, sieben Schläge zurück) machte einen Top-5-Abschluss faktisch unmöglich; eine schwache Schlussrunde (71, +1) bestätigte das enttäuschende Turnier. Quelle: Wikipedia – 2026 Open Championship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Open_Championship)