Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) misses Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus of $0.45 per share — earnings report October 21, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Tesla Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 22, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. October 2026
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Predicted for 21. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Tesla reports Q3-FY2026 earnings on October 21, 2026 after market close; analyst consensus per MarketBeat: $0.45 EPS (revenue ~$27.93B). Tesla beat EPS consensus in only 4 of its last 8 quarters; Q2 FY2026 was a heavy miss ($0.33 actual vs. ~$0.50 estimate, −34%). WTI crude near $98.50/bbl and the US 10-yr yield at 5.14% structurally weigh on EV demand and financing costs. No direct Tesla earnings market found on Polymarket/Kalshi; TSLA rose +3.76% to $368.06 on Oct 20 — possibly pricing in optimism that would unwind on a miss. The 54% miss probability reflects the historical beat rate (50%) and the weak Q2.
Data basis for this prediction
- MarketBeat: Tesla Q3 FY2026 EPS-Konsens 0,45 USD / Umsatzkonsens 27,93 Mrd. USD (Stand 20.10.2026)
- TSLA-Kurs 20.10.2026: 368,06 USD +3,76% (FinancialContent / MarketBeat)
- Tesla Q2 FY2026: 0,33 USD EPS actual vs. ~0,50 USD Konsens (GuruFocus, 20.10.2026)
- US 10-jährige Rendite 5,14% / WTI ~98,50 USD (NordFX Market Pulse, 20.10.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Tesla berichtete am 21. Oktober 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 0,48 USD — und schlug damit den Analystenkonsens von 0,45 USD um ~6,7 %. Die Vorhersage (EPS-Miss) trat nicht ein. Haupttreiber des Beats: Automotive Gross Margin stieg sequenziell von 16,3 % auf 18,1 % (ex Credits), Fahrzeugauslieferungen von 486.532 lagen deutlich über der Konsenserwartung von ~462.000. Quellen: Drive Tesla Canada (driveteslacanada.ca), Shacknews, MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance / Zacks, Electrek — alle bestätigen übereinstimmend den 0,48-USD-Beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.