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📈 Economy · Next Week

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $0.52 per share on July 22, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 22. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
62%

Analysts expect Tesla Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of ~$0.52 (+30% YoY) with revenue of ~$25.99B. Tesla has beaten estimates in four of the last six quarters, driven by strong energy storage and AI/FSD growth. The stock's retreat to ~$380 on July 17 suggests elevated expectation tension. Counter-argument: vehicle margins may continue to compress from China price cuts. No specific Polymarket market found for Tesla EPS; probability based on historical beat rate and sector dynamics.

Data basis for this prediction
  • TipRanks: Tesla EPS-Konsens Q2 2026 ~$0,52, YoY +30 % (Stand Juli 2026)
  • InvestingLive: Tesla vs. Alphabet Ergebnisvorschau Q2 2026 (Stand Juli 2026)
  • TradingEconomics: Tesla (TSLA) Schlusskurs 17.07.2026 ~$380,04
  • EarningsWhispers: Tesla Berichtstag 22. Juli 2026 bestätigt

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss
Tesla verfehlte den EPS-Konsens deutlich: Tatsächliches bereinigtes EPS Q2 2026 lag bei 0,33 USD – rund 37 % unter dem Konsens von ~0,52–0,53 USD und sogar 18 % unter dem Vorjahreswert von 0,40 USD. Hauptursachen waren massive Investitionen in KI, Robotaxi und Fertigungskapazitäten sowie ein einbrechender operativer Gewinn (398 Mio. USD vs. 1,5 Mrd. USD erwartet) und eine stark gesunkene Bruttomarge (16,8 % vs. 19,5 % erwartet). Lediglich der Umsatz übertraf die Erwartungen (28,24 Mrd. USD vs. ~26 Mrd. USD). Quellen: Electrek (https://electrek.co/2026/07/22/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-financial-results/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/tesla-reports-q2-earnings-miss-but-beats-on-revenue-cap-ex-spending-seen-at-25-billion-for-the-year-110300122.html), Teslarati (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-results/).
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US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD spot) closes above $100,000 per unit on December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or CoinGecko by December 31, 2026)

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