Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approximately USD 0.28 per share in Q2 2026 earnings on 22 July 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 22. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Tesla reports Q2 2026 earnings on 22 July 2026 (after market close). Adjusted EPS consensus is USD 0.28 per share (MarketBeat aggregate, range $0.14–$0.44). The wide consensus dispersion (±0.15 USD) signals high analyst uncertainty. Potential beat drivers: (1) Megapack energy storage at record volumes, (2) Q2 vehicle deliveries of 406,024 units beat early market expectations, (3) FSD licensing revenue. Headwinds: persistent pricing pressure from BYD/GM, low vehicle margins. Historical Tesla EPS beat rate ~60–65%; with a low consensus bar ($0.28), the hurdle is relatively modest. No Polymarket market for Tesla EPS.
Data basis for this prediction
- Tesla Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens: $0,28 (Mittelwert), Spanne $0,14–$0,44 (MarketBeat, 14.07.2026)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Ergebnistermin: 22. Juli 2026, nach Börsenschluss, CC 17:30 ET (Tesla IR / MarketBeat)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Lieferungen: 406.024 Fahrzeuge – über frühen Markterwartungen (TechTimes, 02.07.2026)
- Tesla Megapack Energiespeicher: Rekordumsatz als Wachstumstreiber Q1–Q2 2026 (Tesla IR, Apr 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Tesla meldete am 22. Juli 2026 einen bereinigten (non-GAAP) EPS von 0,33 USD – damit wurde der in der Vorhersage genannte Konsens von 0,28 USD numerisch übertroffen. Quellen: Electrek, QZ.com, FXStreet, Yahoo Finance (alle 22.07.2026). WICHTIGE EINSCHRÄNKUNG: Der tatsächliche Markt-Konsens der Analysten lag laut allen Medienberichten deutlich höher bei ca. 0,50–0,54 USD (Bloomberg/CNBC/FactSet), nicht bei 0,28 USD. Tesla verfehlte diesen realen Konsens um ca. 39 % und Aktie fiel nachbörslich ~3 %. Die Vorhersage war also zwar im Buchstaben korrekt (0,33 > 0,28), verwendete aber einen signifikant zu niedrigen Referenz-Konsens – der eigentliche Markttest war eine deutliche Verfehlung. Das 'Hit'-Urteil gilt ausschließlich für die wörtlich genannte Schwelle von 0,28 USD.
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Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
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Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.