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📈 Economy · Tomorrow

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats Q2 2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $0.52 per share (July 22, 2026, after market close)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 22. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
72%

Tesla reports Q2 2026 results after close on July 22. Non-GAAP EPS consensus ~$0.52 (range $0.47–$0.55). Polymarket prices in 75.5% beat probability. Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026 (+25% YoY), well above estimates — signaling strong top-line and potential margin improvement. Q1 2026: $0.41 Non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.37 consensus. Multiple Seeking Alpha analyses headline 'beat is likely'. Zacks consensus $0.47; higher estimates at $0.54–$0.55. TSLA still ~-17% YTD, keeping expectations low.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Polymarket: 75,5% Beat-Wahrscheinlichkeit TSLA Q2 (Stand 21.07.2026)
  • Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries: 480.126 Fahrzeuge +25% YoY (Electrek, 02.07.2026)
  • Non-GAAP EPS-Konsens ~0,52 USD (MarketScreener / Zacks, 20.07.2026)
  • 247wallst.com: TSLA -17% YTD; Earnings 22.07. nach Börsenschluss (20.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss
Tesla meldete am 22. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 0,33 USD – deutlich unter dem Konsens von ~0,52–0,53 USD (Verfehlung um ca. 37–39 %). Trotz Umsatz-Beat (28,24 Mrd. USD, +26 % YoY, über Erwartungen) brach die Profitabilität ein: GAAP-Operating-Margin kollabierte auf 1,4 % (von 4,1 % im Vorjahr), Regulatory-Credit-Einnahmen brachen ein, und Capex von 5,79 Mrd. USD (Cybercab/Robotics) führte zu negativem Free Cash Flow. Der starke Lieferrekord (480.126 Fahrzeuge) schlug sich nicht in der erhofften Margenerholung nieder. Quellen: Electrek (https://electrek.co/2026/07/22/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-financial-results/), TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262049199-tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-results-revenue-beat-eps-miss-margin-tradingkey), Teslarati (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-results/)
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