Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $0.47 per share in its Q2 2026 earnings report (22 July 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
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Predicted for 22. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Tesla reports on 22 July 2026 after market close. Zacks consensus: $0.47 (YoY +17.5%). UBS analyst Joseph Spak estimates $0.67 (+43% above consensus), citing stronger-than-expected Q2 deliveries (~480,000 vehicles) and improved gross margin. Tesla's internal Earnings Expected Surprise Percentage (ESP) is +16.12%, signalling high beat probability. Risks: ongoing margin pressure from China price cuts, Cybertruck production costs and elevated commodity prices could limit the upside. No direct Polymarket market found for TSLA beat; historically Tesla beats the Zacks consensus in 7 of 8 quarters.
Data basis for this prediction
- Tesla Q2 2026 Zacks EPS-Konsens 0,47 USD; UBS-Schätzung 0,67 USD (+43 %) (Zacks / TipRanks / Yahoo Finance, 17.07.2026)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Earnings ESP: +16,12 % (Zacks Investment Research, 17.07.2026)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries ~480.000 Fahrzeuge – stark über Erwartung; Ergebnisdatum 22.07.2026 (Tradingkey / SEC Form 8-K, 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Tesla verfehlte den bereinigten EPS-Konsens deutlich: Tatsächlicher non-GAAP EPS war 0,33 USD – rund 30 % unter dem Zacks-Konsens von ~0,47 USD und sogar 39 % unter dem zum Zeitpunkt des Berichts geltenden Konsens von ~0,53 USD. Das GAAP-EPS lag bei 0,32 USD. Ursachen: Das GAAP-Betriebsergebnis brach um 57 % auf 398 Mio. USD ein, die operative Marge kollabierte von 4,1 % auf 1,4 % – trotz Rekordumsatz von 28,24 Mrd. USD (+26 % YoY, Beat). Treiber des EPS-Misses waren höhere Betriebsausgaben, anhaltender Margendruck und gestiegene Kosten. Die UBS-Schätzung von 0,67 USD und das positive ESP-Signal erwiesen sich als stark überhöht. Quellen: Electrek (22.07.2026), Shacknews, Teslarati, Qz.com, StockTitan.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.