Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) reports Q2-2026 quarterly revenue exceeding $39.5 billion (July 16, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 16. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Wall Street consensus for TSMC Q2-2026 revenue stands at approximately $40 billion (+33% YoY vs. $30.07B in Q2 2025). The $39.5B threshold is 1.25% below consensus. TSMC has beaten EPS consensus in four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise of +8.34%; revenue estimates have also been regularly exceeded. Drivers: CoWoS advanced packaging demand from NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra and Apple iPhone 17 Pro; 3nm node at full utilization. Gross margin guidance 65.5–67.5%. TipRanks: 48 buy ratings, no sell.
Data basis for this prediction
- TSMC Q2 2026 Umsatzkonsens ca. 40 Mrd. USD, +33 % YoY (TipRanks/TechTimes, 11.07.2026)
- TSMC 4-Quartals-EPS-Beat-Streak, ø +8,34 % positive Überraschung (TipRanks, Stand 14.07.2026)
- NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra CoWoS-Nachfrage stützt TSMC-Kapazitätsauslastung (TechTimes, 11.07.2026)
- TSMC Q2 Ergebnis-Veröffentlichung: 16. Juli 2026, 14:00 Uhr Taipeh / 02:00 ET (StockTitan)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TSMC meldete Q2-2026-Umsatz von 40,20 Mrd. USD (>39,5 Mrd. USD). Quelle: TechPowerUp 'TSMC Reports Record Q2 2026 Earning Results' / SEC Form 6-K
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
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✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
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✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.