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Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG, SLO) wins Tour de France 2026 Stage 20 (Le Bourg d'Oisans – Alpe d'Huez, 170.9 km, July 25, 2026)
Probability
52%
After 15 stages Pogačar leads by 5:00 over Evenepoel (Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe) and 5:58 over Del Toro. Stage 20, at 170.9 km and 5,624 m of climbing, is the queen stage of the 2026 Tour, finishing atop Alpe d'Huez — exactly the profile where Pogačar has repeatedly asserted dominance. Since Stage 19 (127.9 km, 3,572 m, also finishing on Alpe d'Huez, July 24) is itself a major effort, Pogačar may concede Stage 19 to a breakaway and reserve full attacking power for the queen stage. Bookmaker odds imply Pogačar as dominant GC favourite (>85%). We assign 52% probability to a Pogačar stage win on Alpe d'Huez in Stage 20.
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF 2026 GC nach Etappe 15: 1. Pogačar 55:41:31, 2. Evenepoel +5:00, 3. Del Toro +5:58 (cyclingnews.com, 20.07.2026)
- Stage-20-Profil: Le Bourg d'Oisans – Alpe d'Huez, 170,9 km, 5.624 Hm (procyclingstats.com)
- Buchmacherquoten implizieren Pogačar als TdF-2026-Gesamtsieger-Favorit (~85 %)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tadej Pogačar gewann die TdF-Etappe 20 (Le Bourg d'Oisans – Alpe d'Huez) am 25. Juli 2026 mit einem neuen Streckenrekord von 35:27 min – sein fünfter Etappensieg in diesem Jahr. Bestätigt durch CyclingWeekly, VAVEL, CyclingStage.com.