Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG, SLO) wins Stage 18 of Tour de France 2026 (Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185.2 km, July 23, 2026) as a solo breakaway
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Stage 18 (Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185.2 km, 3,900 m climbing) is one of the hardest mountain stages this Tour. Pogačar already won Stage 14 (Mulhouse–Le Markstein) solo and is the strongest climber in the peloton. After the Stage 16 TT, Evenepoel will be somewhat fatigued. Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) is the only other realistic GC rival. Pogačar regularly attacks on final climbs in such alpha stages; probability of a solo win based on his season pattern: ~42%. Main risk: surviving breakaway riders or an Evenepoel attack with ITT momentum.
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF 2026 Stage 14 Ergebnis: Pogačar Solosieg (Mulhouse–Le Markstein) (TNT Sports/Cyclingnews, 18.07.2026)
- TdF 2026 GC Stand: Pogačar führt, del Toro 3. (Cyclingnews, 20.07.2026)
- TdF 2026 Stage 18 Strecke: Voiron–Orcières-Merlette, 185,2 km, 3.900 Hm (Cyclingnews Streckenvorschau)
- Pogačar Solo-Siege in großen Rundfahrten 2024–2026: >5 alpine Solosiege (ProCyclingStats)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Etappe 18 TdF 2026: Tadej Pogačar gewann nicht als Soloausreißer. Sieger war Victor Campenaerts aus Dreier-Ausreißergruppe. Pogačar bewahrte GC-Führung ohne Etappensieg. Quelle: BBC Sport, cyclingweekly.com
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