⚽ Sports · Next Week

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG, SLO) wins the polka-dot jersey (King of the Mountains) at the Tour de France 2026 (Paris, July 27, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 27. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

87%

Pogačar leads the KOM classification after Stage 15 with 67 pts vs Paret-Peintre (45, gap: 22). Vingegaard, previously second in KOM, crashed out in Stage 15. Since Pogačar wears yellow, Paret-Peintre carries the polka-dot on the road but Pogačar wins it officially. Remaining stages 17-21 include two Alpe d'Huez ascents. No Polymarket market for polka-dot jersey found; bookmakers see Pogačar as clear favourite.

Data basis for this prediction

KOM-Stand nach Etappe 15: Pogačar 67 Pkt, Paret-Peintre 45 Pkt (cyclinguptodate.com, 21.07.2026)
Vingegaard Sturz & Tour-Aufgabe in Etappe 15 (CyclingNews, Juli 2026)
TdF-Route 2026: Etappen 17–21 inkl. 2× Alpe d'Huez (procyclinguk.com, 2026)
Gepunktetes Trikot: Träger auf dem Rad ≠ offizieller Wertungsführer (procyclinguk.com, 2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Das Gepunktete Trikot (Bergwertung/KOM) gewann Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), nicht Pogačar. Quelle: cyclinguptodate.com, procyclinguk.com

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