Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG, SLO) finishes Stage 16 of the Tour de France 2026 (ITT Évian–Thonon, 26.1 km, 21 July 2026) in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 21. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Evenepoel is the stage-win favourite (open Cassandra prediction), but Pogačar is a world-class time trialist. After Vingegaard's abandonment (broken collarbone, Stage 15), the GC field is thinned; Pogačar leads by 5:00 and will ride conservatively. The partly uphill 9.7 km finish drag favours climbers over pure TT specialists. No direct Polymarket contract for this placement bet; calibrated from ProCyclingStats data.
Data basis for this prediction
- ProCyclingStats: TdF 2026 GC nach Stage 15 – Pogačar +0:00, Evenepoel +5:00, del Toro +5:58 (19.7.2026)
- TheNationalNews.com: Vingegaard crashes out Stage 15, collarbone fracture (19.7.2026)
- IDLProcycling.com: Stage 16 ITT Preview – Evenepoel & Pogačar Favoriten (20.7.2026)
- CyclingStage.com: Stage 16 Profil – 26,1 km, Schlussanstieg 9,7 km Ø 4,3 %
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tadej Pogačar belegte Platz 2 in Etappe 16 TdF 2026 ITT (+28 s hinter Evenepoel). Quellen: Cyclingnews, ProCyclingStats
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