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Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) wins Stage 20 of the 2026 Tour de France (Bourg d'Oisans–Alpe d'Huez, Queen Stage, 170.9 km, July 25, 2026)
Probability
50%
Pogačar leads the GC by 2:42 over Vingegaard heading into the final mountain week. Stage 20 features Col du Galibier, Col de Sarenne, and finishes on Alpe d'Huez — the queen stage of the 2026 edition (double Alpe d'Huez for the first time since 1979). BetMGM prices him at 1.29 for the overall title (~77% implied). He typically attacks aggressively on the hardest days. Stage 20 is not covered by any existing open Cassandra prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- CyclingNews/Olympics.com: TdF 2026 GC Standings – Pogačar +2:42 vor Vingegaard, del Toro 3. (+3:27), Evenepoel 4. (+3:30) – nach Etappe 10, 14. Juli 2026
- Cyclinguptodate.com: 'Profiles & Route TdF 2026 – Alpe d'Huez on Stages 19 and 20'
- RG.org: 'TdF 2026 Preview – Pogačar BetMGM 1.29'
- Velo/Outside: 'Stage 20: Bourg d'Oisans to Alpe d'Huez, 170.9 km – Queen Stage mit 3 HC-Pässen'
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pogačar gewann Etappe 20 (Le Bourg-d'Oisans → Alpe d'Huez) mit Alpe-d'Huez-Rekord, bestätigt durch Cycling Weekly: 'Pogačar takes fifth stage win of 2026 Tour de France with Alpe d'Huez record'.