⚽ Sports · Tomorrow

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) wins Tour de France 2026 Stage 14 (Mulhouse–Le Markstein, 155 km, July 18)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. July 2026 · Predicted for 18. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

48%

Pogačar leads the GC after Stage 13 with 3:36 over Vingegaard and 4:06 over Evenepoel. Stage 14 finishes at Le Markstein (Vosges) — a summit arrival Pogačar won in 2023 in a sprint from a breakaway group. At 155.3 km with 7 climbs and 3,800m of gain, this is a pure climbers' day. Polymarket prices Pogačar at 95% for overall TdF victory. He is the standout climbing favourite, but with Stage 15 (Plateau de Solaison, already separately predicted) harder, he could let a break go today.

Data basis for this prediction

TdF 2026 GC nach Etappe 13: 1. Pogačar, 2. Vingegaard +3:36, 3. Evenepoel +4:06 (CyclingNews, 17. Juli 2026)
Polymarket: Pogačar TdF 2026 Gesamtsieger 95 % (Stand 17. Juli 2026, $758k Volumen)
Etappe 14 Route: Mulhouse–Le Markstein, 155,3 km, 7 Anstiege, 3.800 Hm (cyclingstage.com / intervals.icu)
TdF 2023 Le Markstein: Pogačar gewinnt aus Ausreißergruppe (ASO-Archiv / procyclingstats.com)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) gewann Etappe 14 der Tour de France 2026 (Mulhouse–Le Markstein) mit einem Solo-Angriff kurz vor dem Gipfel. Quellen: VAVEL, procyclingstats.com, franceletour.com (18. Juli 2026).

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