Tadej Pogačar leads Tour de France 2026 after Stage 13 (July 17) by more than 4:00 minutes over Jonas Vingegaard
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Pogačar is 2:42 ahead after 6 stages. Key summit finish: Stage 10 (July 14, Le Lioran, Bastille Day). On comparable climbs Pogačar typically gains 1.5–2.5 minutes — an additional gain of just 1:18 would push the lead above 4:00. Stages 11–13 are flat to lightly hilly (Vichy–Nevers, Magny-Cours–Chalon, Dole–Belfort); minimal further GC time gains. Polymarket: Pogačar 92% overall win, Vingegaard 5%.
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF GC Stand 11.07.2026: Pogačar +2:42 (Cyclingnews 11.07.2026)
- Etappe 10: Bergziel Le Lioran, Bastille Day (cyclingstage.com / domestiquecycling.com)
- Etappen 11–13: flach/leicht hügelig — Streckenprofile (cyclingstage.com)
- Polymarket TdF-Gewinner: Pogačar 92 %, Vingegaard 5 % (Stand 11.07.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pogačars Vorsprung auf Vingegaard nach Etappe 13 beträgt nur 3:36 Minuten – nicht mehr als 4:00 Minuten. Quellen: ProCyclingStats, Cyclingnews, NBC Sports
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