Sweden Democrats (SD) exceed 18.0% of the vote at the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Sweden Democrats (SD) average approximately 19.2% in weighted polling (politpro.eu, September 1, 2026) — 1.2 points above the 18.0% threshold. With a typical polling margin of ±2pp, the probability of falling below 18.0% is approximately 18–20%. Aggregate bookmaker odds place SD as Sweden's second-largest party behind Socialdemokraterna (30.7%). No Polymarket contract on this exact threshold available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Politpro.eu: SD gewichteter Umfragedurchschnitt ~19,2% (1. September 2026)
- Socialdemokraterna (S) ~30,7%, SD ~19,2%, M ~17,9% — Riksdag-Umfragen-Aggregat
- Riksdag-Wahl Schweden: 13. September 2026 (Valmyndigheten)
Verdict: Miss
Die Sverigedemokraterna erzielten bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen 17,5% der Stimmen – und verfehlten damit die Schwelle von 18,0%. Gegenüber 2022 (20,5%) verloren sie sogar Stimmen, erstmals seit ihrem Einzug in den Riksdag. Die Vorhersage stützte sich auf Umfragen (~19,2%), die den tatsächlichen Stimmungsumschwung zugunsten des linken Blocks (Sieg mit 176:173 Sitzen) nicht vollständig abbildeten. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', bpb.de 'Parlamentswahl in Schweden 2026', val.se Wahlergebnisse 2026.
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