Sudan Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) win the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 (announcement Norwegian Nobel Committee Oslo, 9 October 2026, confirmed via Nobel.org by 10 October 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 9. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Kalshi places the Sudan Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) at ~13% — just behind Mark Carney (~14%) and ahead of Doctors Without Borders (~10%). The field spans 287 nominations (208 individuals, 79 organisations), keeping individual probabilities naturally low. The ERRs — a civilian-led relief network providing food, medical care and evacuations since Sudan's 2023 civil war — were first nominated in 2025. An ERR win would continue the committee's tradition of honouring acute humanitarian crises.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Market: Sudan ERRs ~13%, Mark Carney ~14%, MSF ~10% (covers.com/kalshi.com, Stand 3. Oktober 2026)
- OLBG: 287 Nominierungen; ERRs zweites Jahr in Folge im Rennen, $1,4 Mio. Volumen auf Kalshi (Oktober 2026)
- Nobel Prize Announcement Dates: Frieden 9. Oktober 2026, Norwegisches Nobelkomitee (nobelprize.org)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Der Friedensnobelpreis 2026 wurde am 9. Oktober 2026 nicht an die Sudan Emergency Response Rooms vergeben. Laut ara.cat-Liveblog zur 2026-Ankündigung erhielt ihn María Corina Machado. Quelle: ara.cat Live-Ankündigung Nobelfriedenspreis 2026
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