SPD wins more than 25.0% of votes cast at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The most recent poll (Infratest dimap for NDR, July 2–6, 2026) shows the SPD at 29% under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, behind the leading AfD (36%) but well ahead of CDU (9%) and Linke (12%). Historically strong in MV (39.6% in 2021). A fall below 25% by election day would require a swing of over 4 points from the July level. The Schwesig incumbency premium provides additional protection.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap/NDR: MV-Wahlumfrage 2.–6. Juli 2026 – SPD 29 %, AfD 36 %, Linke 12 %, CDU 9 %
- wahlrecht.de: Umfragen Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Stand August 2026
- dawum.de: MV Wahlumfragen 2026
- t-online.de: 'MV Wahl 2026 Wahlumfrage zeigt Trend – SPD bangt', August 2026
Verdict: Hit
Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 35,5 % der Stimmen — deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 25,0 %. Damit gewann sie 29 von 71 Mandaten. Stärkste Kraft wurde die AfD mit 38,2 %. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), wahlrecht.de, Wikipedia (Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026).
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