SPD receives more than 24.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on September 20, 2026 (confirmed by state returning officer or tagesschau.de)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
SPD won 39.6% in MV in 2021 and 30.6% in 2016. Despite national headwinds and AfD leading (per open prediction), SPD's regional roots put it well above 24%. August 2026 polls (Infratest dimap/INSA) show SPD at ~25–32% in MV. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found; threshold of >24% is deliberately conservative.
Data basis for this prediction
- MV Landtagswahl 2021: SPD 39,6% (Landeswahlleiter MV)
- MV Landtagswahl 2016: SPD 30,6% (Landeswahlleiter MV)
- Umfragen MV August 2026: SPD ca. 25–32% (Infratest dimap / INSA)
- AfD stärkste Partei MV 2026 (offene Cassandra.news-Vorhersage)
Verdict: Hit
Die SPD erzielte bei der Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl am 20. September 2026 laut Wahlergebnissen 35,5% der Stimmen (29 von 71 Sitzen). Das liegt weit über der Schwelle von 24,0%. Die AfD wurde mit 38,2% stärkste Kraft, die SPD landete auf Platz zwei. Quellen: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026, statistiken-aktuell.de/landtagswahl-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026/
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