🏛️ Politics · Next Month

SPD achieves more than 24.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on September 20, 2026 (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

82%

Current INSA polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (August 2026) show SPD at 29%, AfD at 36%, Linke at 11%, and CDU at 10%. Minister-President Manuela Schwesig benefits from high personal approval and incumbency (2021 result: 39.6%). The 24.0% threshold is ~5 points below the polling average — a buffer for historical mobilization risk and polling variance. Infratest dimap puts SPD in the 27–31% corridor. No existing Cassandra forecast covers the SPD MV result. Estimated probability: 82%.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern August 2026: SPD 29%, AfD 36%, Linke 11%, CDU 10% (wahlrecht.de, August 2026)
Infratest dimap Wahltrend MV August 2026: SPD 27–31% (tagesschau.de, August 2026)
Landeswahlleiter MV: SPD-Ergebnis 2021: 39,6% — starker Schwesig-Amtsinhaberbonus (Landeswahlleiter MV, September 2021)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut amtlichem Endergebnis des Landeswahlleiters 35,5 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 24,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-endgueltiges-amtliches-wahlergebnis-steht-fest) und Wikipedia (de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026).

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