🏛️ Politics · Next Month

SPD receives more than 25.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) (confirmed by the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern electoral authority)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

67%

Current Insa poll (August 2026): AfD 36%, SPD 29%, Die Linke 11%, CDU 10%. The SPD won 39.6% in 2021—their best state result since reunification—and is traditionally the dominant force in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern under Minister-President Schwesig. May 2026 polls showed 23–27%; more recent (August) measurements tend towards 29%. The 25% threshold lies well below the polling average. A late AfD surge could actually mobilise SPD voters, further securing the 25% mark.

Data basis for this prediction

Insa-Umfrage MV Landtagswahl 2026: AfD 36 %, SPD 29 % (August 2026, bundestagwahlumfrage.de)
t-online.de: 'MV-Wahl 2026: Wahlumfrage gibt Prognosetrend ab – Schwesigs SPD zittert' (August 2026)
dawum.de: Sonntagsfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026, historische Daten SPD 23–29 % (Mai–August 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 35,5 % der Stimmen (29 Sitze von 71). Das liegt deutlich über der prognostizierten Schwelle von 25,0 %. Die AfD wurde mit 38,2 % stärkste Kraft; CDU (4,9 %) und FDP (1,0 %) scheiterten an der 5-%-Hürde. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), Wikipedia 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026'.

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