SpaceX Starship Flight 13: Lift-off succeeds on July 20, 2026 before midnight UTC
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 20. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
SpaceX is targeting July 20, 2026 at 22:45 UTC for Starship Flight 13. After the July 16 abort due to two non-igniting Raptor-3 engines, the engines were replaced. Polymarket gives 91% probability of a successful lift-off by July 31, 2026 (trading volume $342,400, as of July 18, 2026). Adjusted for weather, scrub, and regulatory risk for the specific July 20 date, this implies ~62%. Prediction covers lift-off only, not mission success or Mechazilla catch.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 91 % Startwahrscheinlichkeit bis 31.07.2026 (Stand 18.07.2026, spacelaunchschedule.com)
- Space.com: Starship Flight 13 Ziel 20. Juli 2026, 22:45 UTC, nach Raptor-3-Austausch (17.07.2026)
- SpaceX: Abort am 16.07.2026 – 2 Raptor-3-Triebwerke nicht gezündet (Space.com, 17.07.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Starship Flight 13 zweiter Startversuch am 20. Juli 2026 um 22:45 UTC ebenfalls automatisch abgebrochen; kein Lift-off vor Mitternacht UTC. Nächster Versuch erst 23. Juli 2026. Quellen: Wikipedia – Starship flight test 13; Space.com
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