💻 Technology · Next Week

SpaceX Starship IFT-13 (launch July 23, 2026): Upper stage Ship 30 survives reentry and completes controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean off Western Australia (confirmed via SpaceX webcast)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 24. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

58%

Starship IFT-13 launches July 23, 2026 from 22:45 UTC at Starbase Texas. Per SpaceX mission profile, Ship 30 should complete a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean off Western Australia ~65 min after launch, following an in-space Raptor relight and landing flip maneuver. This forecast is complementary to existing predictions (booster droneboat in Gulf of Mexico; Starlink V3 suborbital deployment). No Polymarket market found for Ship splashdown specifically. IFT-12 (Nov. 2025) first achieved successful Ship reentry; IFT-13 must repeat it under a more complex payload profile with 20 Starlink V3 satellites deployed suborbital. Success probability increased but Ship reentry remains technically demanding.

Data basis for this prediction

SpaceX IFT-13: Ship 30 Ziel-Splashdown Indischer Ozean, 65 min nach Start (space.com, 21.07.2026)
SpaceX Startfenster 23.07.2026, 22:45 UTC (spacelaunchschedule.com)
IFT-13 Payload: 20 Starlink-V3-Satelliten, suborbital (space.com)
IFT-13 Erststart 16. Juli abgebrochen; Neustart 23. Juli bestätigt (space.com, 20.07.2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] SpaceX IFT-13 nutzt Booster 20 und Ship 40 (S40), nicht Ship 30. Zudem fand der Start nicht am 23. Juli statt (verschoben auf 24. Juli). Das in der Vorhersage beschriebene Ereignis (Ship 30, Start 23. Juli) ist damit unmöglich eingetreten. Quellen: Wikipedia Starship FT-13, Space.com.

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