SpaceX Starship Flight 14 achieves first complete orbital insertion on September 28, 2026 (6 orbits, 275 km altitude, confirmed by SpaceX or Space.com by September 29, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
SpaceX has targeted September 28, 2026 for Starship's first true orbital attempt (Flight 14): launch window at 12:15 GMT, 6 orbits at ~275 km altitude, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites, booster landing in the Gulf of Mexico, Pacific Ocean splashdown. Flight 12 (May 2026): ship succeeded, booster crashed; Flight 13 (July 2026): fully successful. Orbital insertion represents a major complexity jump — for the first time, deorbit burn, heat shield entry, and precise Pacific landing must be coordinated. No prediction market odds available. Success probability derived from SpaceX's learning curve (2/2 successful V3 missions) minus a risk premium for the new mission profile.
Data basis for this prediction
- SpaceX.com — Starship Flight 14 Mission Profile, Startfenster 28.09.2026 12:15 GMT (Stand 25.09.2026)
- Engadget — 'SpaceX targets September 28 for Starship's first orbital flight' (25.09.2026)
- Space.com — Starship Flight 14 Live Updates: 6-Orbit-Mission, 26 Starlink-V3-Satelliten (25.09.2026)
- SpaceX — Flight 12 Mishap (Mai 2026) & Flight 13 Erfolg (Juli 2026), spacex.com
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SpaceX Starship Flight 14 erreichte am 28. September 2026 erfolgreiche Orbitinsertion (~275 km, ~6 Orbits). Bestätigt durch Space.com Live-Updates ('Starship is in orbit!'), NASASpaceFlight.com und Spaceflight Now. FAA-Lizenz wurde am 26. September 2026 erteilt.
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