💻 Technology · Next Week

SpaceX Conducts Orbital Test Launch of Starship Version 3 (Flight 11) by 12 October 2026 (Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral FL, confirmed by SpaceX or Spaceflight Now by 13 October 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. September 2026 · Predicted for 12. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

52%

SpaceX has scheduled the first orbital test flight of Starship Version 3 (Flight 11) for NET October 7, 2026. The mission is to deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites as the first operational payload for Starship – a program milestone. The five-day buffer (to October 12) improves forecast precision: SpaceX typically launches within one week of the stated NET date when FAA approvals and technical certifications are complete. Counterbalancing factors are pending regulatory steps and the historical pattern of Starship launches slipping 1-3 weeks. No Polymarket or Kalshi odds available; estimate based on program status, NET date, and historical SpaceX launch adherence.

Data basis for this prediction

Spaceflight Now: Starship V3 Flight 11 NET 7. Oktober 2026 – 26 Starlink-V3-Satelliten als Nutzlast (Stand: Mai 2026)
SpaceX: Starship-Programm-Entwicklungsstatus und FAA-Genehmigungsprozess (September 2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Starship Flight 11 fand am 13. Oktober 2025 statt und war Version 2 (nicht Version 3) sowie kein orbitaler Flug (suborbitaler Hochtestflug mit Splashdown im Indischen Ozean). Version 3 debütierte erst mit Flight 12 (Mai 2026). Den ersten orbitalen Starship-Flug führte Flight 14 am 28. September 2026 durch. Die Kombination 'Version 3 (Flight 11) orbital' existierte nie. Quellen: space.com Starship Flight 11, nextspaceflight.com, cnbc.com 2026-09-28.

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