💻 Technology · Next Month

SpaceX successfully completes a Starship test flight by 31 August 2026: booster returns under control, upper stage survives re-entry (confirmed by SpaceX webcast)

Partial Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. August 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

58%

The IFT-13 launch attempt on 23 July 2026 was aborted at T-0:00:00 after 4 of 33 Raptor engines on Booster B20 failed to ignite — a similar issue to the abort on 16 July. SpaceX must diagnose the engine anomaly and may need to replace engines. Historically, SpaceX has re-launched within 2–5 weeks of comparable aborts (2024–2025), making an August launch date plausible. Existing IFT-13 predictions (specifically for 23 July) are already void due to the abort. No Polymarket target for reschedule date.

Data basis for this prediction

SpaceX IFT-13 Abbruch T-0: 4 Raptor-Triebwerke zündeten nicht, Booster B20/Ship S40 (Space.com, 23.07.2026)
Vorheriger IFT-13-Abbruch: 16. Juli 2026, Post-Ignition-Anomalie (SpaceX / Wikipedia, 16.07.2026)
SpaceX Turnaround-Zeiten nach Abbrüchen 2024–2025: 14–35 Tage (Space.com historical)

Verdict: Partial Hit

IFT-13 startete erfolgreich am 24. Juli 2026 (innerhalb der Frist). Die Oberstufe überlebte den Wiedereintritt und erzielte laut SpaceX den 'softest splashdown ever' (bestätigt per Webcast). Jedoch schlug die Booster-Landung fehl: Nur 5–10 von 13 vorgesehenen Raptor-Triebwerken zündeten beim Landemanöver, Booster 20 schlug unkontrolliert im Golf von Mexiko auf und wurde zerstört – kein 'kontrollierter Rückkehr'. Für August 2026 (Flight 14) plante SpaceX ursprünglich einen Tower-Catch der Oberstufe, Musk ruderte am 20. August aber zurück ('in a few months'). Flight 14 startete nicht mehr vor dem 31. August. Quellen: TechCrunch (26.07.2026), Space.com IFT-13 splashdown, Wikipedia Starship flight test 13.

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46%

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