💻 Technology · Next Month

SpaceX makes the first-ever Mechazilla catch attempt of the Starship upper stage ('Ship') at Boca Chica, Texas, by September 30, 2026 — regardless of success (confirmed by SpaceX press release or FAA notification)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. August 2026 · Predicted for 30. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

55%

SpaceX has successfully caught the Super Heavy booster multiple times via Mechazilla since Flight 5 (October 2024) and is iterating toward the next milestone: catching the Starship upper stage. Elon Musk suggested catching the ship 'in a few months.' Flight 14 is tentatively targeted for the first Ship catch attempt in late August 2026. By September 30, SpaceX would have two windows across Flights 14 and 15. Counter-arguments: FAA regulatory delays, technical revisions, or a rocket failure on Flight 14 could push the attempt out. No specific Polymarket market; estimate based on FAA planning and Musk statements.

Data basis for this prediction

SpaceX Flight 14: erster Ship-Catch-Versuch tentativ für Ende August 2026 (starship-spacex.fandom.com, techawave.com)
Elon Musk: Ship-Catch 'probably in a few months' (teslarati.com/SpaceX)
Booster-Catch seit Flight 5 (Oktober 2024) etabliert; 4–6 Flights in 2026 geplant (press.farm/techawave.com)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Starship Flight 14 (28. September 2026) sieht laut Missionszielen eine Wasserung von Ship 41 im Pazifik vor, keinen Turm-Fangversuch. Flight 15 (mit Ship 42, der am 12. September für Fangversuche am Boden getestet wurde) gilt als 'führender Kandidat' für den ersten Ship-Fangversuch, wird aber erst 'später im Herbst' erwartet – also nach dem 30. September 2026. Quellen: NASASpaceFlight, TeslaNorth (Sept. 12, 2026), SatNews, Space.com.

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