SpaceX catches Ship 42 with Mechazilla arms on Starship Flight 15 (NET October 19, 2026, Starbase Boca Chica TX, confirmed by SpaceX press release or NASASpaceFlight.com by October 31, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. September 2026
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Predicted for 19. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Elon Musk internally put the probability of catching Ship 42 on the first attempt at 50–60% (TeslaNorth.com, Sep 15, 2026). Starship Flight 14 completed the first orbital payload mission on September 28, 2026 (26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed, Ship 41 water-landed as planned) — no catch attempted, but the outcome confirms Ship 42 as the next candidate. NET for Flight 15 per CADENA-COMPASS slide: no earlier than October 19, 2026. Ship 42 passed Mechazilla chopstick grip tests on September 12, 2026 (TeslaNorth.com). Booster catches have been demonstrated multiple times; the Ship catch is harder (orbital return speed, greater heat-shield stress). No Polymarket/Kalshi market found; SpaceX's internal estimate (50–60%) serves as direct anchor. Own estimate: 52% — modest discount for the greater technical difficulty versus booster catches.
Data basis for this prediction
- TeslaNorth.com: Musk nennt 50–60 % Ship-Fang-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Flug 15 (15.09.2026)
- NASASpaceFlight.com: Flug-15-NET frühestens 19. Oktober 2026, CADENA-COMPASS-Folie (September 2026)
- SpaceX/CNN: Starship Flight 14 erfolgreich – 26 Starlink-V3-Satelliten, Ship 41 gewassert (28.09.2026)
- TeslaNorth.com/Zamin.uz: Ship 42 besteht Mechazilla-Greifarmen-Tests erfolgreich (12.09.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SpaceX Starship Flug 15 wurde auf NET 8. November 2026 verschoben – nach dem Bestätigungsdeadline 31. Oktober 2026. Ein Mechazilla-Catch von Ship 42 bis 31. Oktober ist damit definitiv ausgeschlossen. Quellen: Wikipedia Starship flight 15, NewSpaceEconomy, KeepTrack Starship Tracker.
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