📈 Economy
· Next Week
S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,300 points on July 22, 2026
Probability
84%
S&P 500 closed at approx. 7,458 on July 17, 2026 (CNBC). Breaching 7,300 would require a ≥−2.1% drop in four trading sessions — historically rare in technically intact bull markets. Headwinds: Iran/Hormuz escalation pushed Brent +4.5% to $88.10 on July 18, potentially triggering risk aversion. Support: Dense earnings calendar on July 22 (Tesla, Alphabet, 3M, AT&T, Texas Instruments) with broadly positive expectations. Polymarket shows 62% for SPY ≥ $760 (≈S&P 7,600) in July — classifying a breach of the much lower 7,300 level as unlikely.
Data basis for this prediction
- S&P 500 Schluss 17. Juli 2026: ~7.458 Punkte (CNBC)
- Polymarket SPY ≥ 760 USD im Juli 2026: 62 % (Polymarket, 18. Juli 2026)
- Brent Crude +4,5 % am 18. Juli 2026: 88,10 USD/Barrel (Trading Economics)
- Earnings-Dichte am 22. Juli 2026: TSLA, GOOGL, MMM, T, TXN (MarketBeat)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der S&P 500 schloss am 22. Juli 2026 bei ca. 7.484–7.499 Punkten (Quellen: Yahoo Finance, Motley Fool, CNBC) – deutlich über der Marke von 7.300. Der Index verlor lediglich rund 0,14–0,33 % gegenüber dem Vortagsschluss von ~7.509, blieb aber weit entfernt von der Schwelle. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein.