Swiss National Bank cuts policy rate by at least 25 basis points on September 25, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. September 2026
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Predicted for 25. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The SNB quarterly meeting on September 25, 2026 occurs amid strong CHF safe-haven demand from the Iran war (ongoing since February 2026) and global uncertainty. CHF appreciation creates deflationary import pressure and hurts Swiss exporters. The ECB at 2.75% is far above the SNB level, leaving room to ease. The SNB ran an aggressive easing cycle in 2024–2025; current rate estimated at ~0.25%. No Polymarket market found for this meeting; own probability of a cut: ~58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- SNB-Quartalssitzung 25. September 2026 bestätigt (SNB.ch Terminkalender)
- EZB-Einlagenzinssatz 2,75 %: Cassandra-Plattform, offene Vorhersage (Stand 21.09.2026)
- CHF Safe-Haven-Zufluss durch Iran-Krieg seit Februar 2026 (Wikipedia '2026 Iran war', Al Jazeera)
- SNB-Leitzins-Schätzung ~0,25 % auf Basis Senkungszyklus 2024–2025 (SNB-Pressemitteilungen)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SNB hat am 24. September 2026 den Leitzins unverändert bei 0,00% belassen – keine Senkung um 25 Basispunkte. Bestätigt durch watson.ch, SRF, 20min.ch und Moneycab.
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