Serbian snap parliamentary election (25 October 2026): Srpska napredna stranka (SNS) of Aleksandar Vučić wins more than 40.0% of votes cast (confirmed by CESID or Reuters by 26 October 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. September 2026
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Predicted for 25. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
President Vučić dissolved parliament in September 2026 and called snap elections for 25 October 2026. SNS won the 2023 snap elections with 46.2%. Government-aligned polls (Faktor Plus, spring 2026) show the party at ~46%; independent institute CRTA estimates support at 35.7% (July 2026) — the first time since July 2010 that an opposition-friendly aggregate has led. Polymarket prices Vučić at 66.3% to become next Prime Minister. SNS controls state media and administrative resources, conferring structural campaign advantages; however, student protests and a strengthening opposition coalition are mounting pressure. Even if the independent CRTA estimate proves more accurate than party-aligned polls, a result above 40% remains likely — SNS historically stays above this threshold even under stress.
Data basis for this prediction
- Serbien Snap-Wahl 25.10.2026 ausgerufen (newunionpost.eu, 09.09.2026)
- Umfrage CRTA Juli 2026: SNS 35,7 % | Faktor Plus Frühjahr 2026: ~46 % (Wikipedia 'Opinion polling 2026 Serbian parliamentary election')
- Polymarket: Vučić nächster Premierminister Serbiens 66,3 % (Stand 15.09.2026)
- SNS Ergebnis Snap-Wahl 2023: 46,2 % (Wikipedia '2023 Serbian parliamentary election')
Verdict: Miss
Die SNS erzielte laut CESID/Ipsos-Hochrechnung (96,9 % ausgezählt) ca. 38,8–39,8 % der Stimmen – knapp unter der Schwelle von 40,0 %. Die Studentenliste (Studentska lista) gewann überraschend klar mit ~53 % und 141 von 250 Mandaten; Vučić räumte die Niederlage noch am Wahlabend ein. Die Vorhersage scheiterte daran, dass die von CRTA geschätzte schwächere Unterstützung (35,7 %) näher an der Realität lag als regierungsnahe Umfragen (~46 %), und die Mobilisierung durch die studentische Protestbewegung die Wahlbeteiligung auf 68,95 % trieb (+10 PP gegenüber 2023). Quellen: Berliner Zeitung (26.10.2026), T-Online (26.10.2026), European Western Balkans (25.10.2026), Balkan Insight (25.10.2026).
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