Swiss National Bank (SNB) raises key rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% at its December 11, 2026 meeting (confirmed by SNB press release or Bloomberg by December 11, 2026, 15:30 CET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. September 2026
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Predicted for 11. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The SNB held rates unanimously at 0% at its September 24, 2026 meeting — in line with all economist forecasts and a market that priced 94% probability of no change beforehand. At the same time, the SNB lifted its inflation forecasts for 2026 (+0.7%), 2027 (+0.8%) and 2028 (+0.8%). Markets currently price approximately 50% probability of a hike at the December meeting and >90% probability of a move by spring 2027. Key drivers: CHF depreciation amid energy price pressure (Iran channel) and the global tightening backdrop (ECB, Fed, BoJ all in hiking mode). Counterbalancing: the SNB is structurally one of the most cautious central banks; an oil-price decline could push the first move to 2027. Market anchor of ~50% used as the calibration baseline.
Data basis for this prediction
- SNB September-Entscheidung: 0 % unverändert, einstimmig (24.09.2026, CNBC / investinglive.com)
- Marktpreisbildung: ~50 % Wahrscheinlichkeit Dez.-Erhöhung; >90 % bis Frühjahr 2027 (congress.net / biggo.com / rateprobability.com, Sept. 2026)
- SNB hebt Inflationsprognosen 2026–2028 an (admiralmarkets.com / syzgroup.com, 24.09.2026)
- CHF-Abwertung und hohe Ölpreise erhöhen Handlungsdruck; Dezember-Entscheidung bleibt offen (gurufocus.com, Sept. 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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